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By Jonathan Wachs

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By Jonathan Wachs

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By Mike Brody

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By Chris Goudey
WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer
 
We are about 1/3 of the way through the 2006 MLB season, and whether you are doing well or are struggling, this is a crucial time. You know what categories you need to improve on and one of the best ways to improve your standing is to pick up guys who have started off slowly but are due to break out.  Here is a list of players to target who have had a bad spring but should soon get as hot as the weather:
 
Batters:
Marcus Giles, 2B, Atlanta –He is historically a .300 hitter who is currently hitting .235.  He’s a perfect buy-low candidate.
 
Manny Ramirez, OF, Boston – Usually good for 40 HRs and 130 RBIs, he is currently in single-digits in HRs and very low in RBIs.  He is the ONE player who is due to go crazy in the month of June.  
 

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By Chris Goudey
WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer
 
We are about 1/3 of the way through the 2006 MLB season, and whether you are doing well or are struggling, this is a crucial time. You know what categories you need to improve on and one of the best ways to improve your standing is to pick up guys who have started off slowly but are due to break out.  Here is a list of players to target who have had a bad spring but should soon get as hot as the weather:
 
Batters:
Marcus Giles, 2B, Atlanta –He is historically a .300 hitter who is currently hitting .235.  He’s a perfect buy-low candidate.
 
Manny Ramirez, OF, Boston – Usually good for 40 HRs and 130 RBIs, he is currently in single-digits in HRs and very low in RBIs.  He is the ONE player who is due to go crazy in the month of June.  
 

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By Kevin Rreavey

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By Mike Rothman
WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer 

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By Jonathan Wachs
WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer 
 
Now that most teams have played around forty games, let’s look at the Divisional Races:
 
NL EAST
 
The Mets, Phillies, and Braves have gone through hot streaks (seemingly, coinciding with the times when they had games against the division’s weak sisters, the Marlins and the Nationals).
 
The Mets got off to a hot start, but have slowed down a little bit as the injury bug has hit the back of their rotation. Look for them to make a trade or rush phenom Mike Pelfrey, as they have finally given up on Jose Lima, with Jeremi Gonzalez soon to follow. If the Mets can fix the back of the rotation behind Pedro Martinez and Tom Glavine, they will be the team to beat as their bullpen trio of Aaron Heilman, Duaner Sanchez, and Billy Wagner has been sensational, and their balanced lineup led by Carlos Delgado, David Wright, and Carlos Beltran is solid. 
 
The Braves got off to a tough start, as Tim Hudson and Jeff Francoeur struggled early, but both have turned things around.  The Braves always seem to come up with bullpen finds (check out Kenny Ray’s stats so far this year), but they still need to find a solid closer at some point in order to win this division. The lineup has been solid, as the Jones Boys keep putting up big numbers, Edgar Renteria is playing like one of the league’s top shortstops again, and Brian McCann has been a revelation on offense. The Braves should hang around and push the Mets for the Division title or at least compete for a wildcard berth.
 
The Phillies recently had a nine game winning streak, and ended play on Saturday with a four game losing streak, so this is a streaky team. Their pitching killed them early as Jon Lieber, Cory Lidle, Gavin Floyd, and Ryan Madsen all struggled. Lieber has pitched better, of late, and the Phillies hope recent call up Cole Hamels can join Lieber and ace Brett Myers as a strong top three in the rotation.  Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Bobby Abreu are the core of a powerful lineup. The bullpen could use some reinforcements, despite Tom Gordon’s surprising early season success.  The Phillies should stick around in both the division and wildcard race, but, ultimately, they may fall short due to their pitching.
 
The Marlins and the Nationals? The season is already over for them.
 
The Marlins can take some consolation from the fact that they are developing some good talent like Hanley Ramirez and Josh Willingham. They face a big decision as to whether they want to trade off their remaining superstars, Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera. If Willis is traded, the balance of power in baseball may shift.
 
The Nationals can look to acquire some of their own prospects for the likes of Jose Vidro, Livan Hernandez, and Alfonso Soriano. After a solid season last year, injuries to John Patterson and Luis Ayala have killed a Nationals pitching staff with very little depth.
 
One thing we have learned is that there is a wide gap between the top three teams and the bottom two. Knowing the division may come down to how well they feast on the weaker teams, consider betting on the Mets, Braves, and Phillies when they face their weaker opponents.

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By Jonathan Wachs
WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer 
 
Now that most teams have played around forty games, let’s look at the Divisional Races:
 
NL EAST
 
The Mets, Phillies, and Braves have gone through hot streaks (seemingly, coinciding with the times when they had games against the division’s weak sisters, the Marlins and the Nationals).
 
The Mets got off to a hot start, but have slowed down a little bit as the injury bug has hit the back of their rotation. Look for them to make a trade or rush phenom Mike Pelfrey, as they have finally given up on Jose Lima, with Jeremi Gonzalez soon to follow. If the Mets can fix the back of the rotation behind Pedro Martinez and Tom Glavine, they will be the team to beat as their bullpen trio of Aaron Heilman, Duaner Sanchez, and Billy Wagner has been sensational, and their balanced lineup led by Carlos Delgado, David Wright, and Carlos Beltran is solid. 
 
The Braves got off to a tough start, as Tim Hudson and Jeff Francoeur struggled early, but both have turned things around.  The Braves always seem to come up with bullpen finds (check out Kenny Ray’s stats so far this year), but they still need to find a solid closer at some point in order to win this division. The lineup has been solid, as the Jones Boys keep putting up big numbers, Edgar Renteria is playing like one of the league’s top shortstops again, and Brian McCann has been a revelation on offense. The Braves should hang around and push the Mets for the Division title or at least compete for a wildcard berth.
 
The Phillies recently had a nine game winning streak, and ended play on Saturday with a four game losing streak, so this is a streaky team. Their pitching killed them early as Jon Lieber, Cory Lidle, Gavin Floyd, and Ryan Madsen all struggled. Lieber has pitched better, of late, and the Phillies hope recent call up Cole Hamels can join Lieber and ace Brett Myers as a strong top three in the rotation.  Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Bobby Abreu are the core of a powerful lineup. The bullpen could use some reinforcements, despite Tom Gordon’s surprising early season success.  The Phillies should stick around in both the division and wildcard race, but, ultimately, they may fall short due to their pitching.
 
The Marlins and the Nationals? The season is already over for them.
 
The Marlins can take some consolation from the fact that they are developing some good talent like Hanley Ramirez and Josh Willingham. They face a big decision as to whether they want to trade off their remaining superstars, Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera. If Willis is traded, the balance of power in baseball may shift.
 
The Nationals can look to acquire some of their own prospects for the likes of Jose Vidro, Livan Hernandez, and Alfonso Soriano. After a solid season last year, injuries to John Patterson and Luis Ayala have killed a Nationals pitching staff with very little depth.
 
One thing we have learned is that there is a wide gap between the top three teams and the bottom two. Knowing the division may come down to how well they feast on the weaker teams, consider betting on the Mets, Braves, and Phillies when they face their weaker opponents.

By Jonathan Wachs
WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer
 
A baseball trade is basically a wager by two general managers that the player each acquires will be better than the one he gives up.  It may or may not work out well. That’s gambling.
 
Now that Scott Kazmir is off to a great start at 5-2 with a 2.94 ERA and Victor Zambrano has just undergone season-ending surgery, it might be a good time to review how Jim Duquette, the Mets GM at the time, broke every single rule of gambling.
 
NEVER BET MORE THAN YOU CAN AFFORD
 
When the Mets traded Scott Kazmir, their farm system was almost completely bare. The only true blue-chip pitching prospects at the time were Phil Humber, who has since undergone Tommy John surgery, and Alay Soler, a Cuban defector who just made it to the U.S. this season and is currently pitching at AA.  This year the Mets are throwing out such retreads as Jose Lima and Jeremi Gonzalez as they wait for Mike Pelfrey and the next wave of prospects to be ready. Do you think they would rather have sent out Jose Lima – or Scott Kazmir, to try and sweep their arch-rival Braves last week?
 
NEVER BET WHILE INTOXICATED
 
Right around the time of the trade in 2004, the Mets had just swept their cross-town rivals, the New York Yankees, in an exciting three-game series.  The Mets, who had been dead in this town since 2000, finally had some juice. They were close to first place and back on the back page. Of course, they still had a .500 record and not much talent. But Duquette, drunk on the city’s enthusiasm, wanted to “win now” no matter what the future cost.
 
DO YOUR HOMEWORK
 
You wouldn’t bet on a Falcons game without checking if Michael Vick was hurt, would you? Yet Mr. Duquette failed to adequately check into Victor Zambrano’s injury before the trade. Zambrano admitted he has been hurt the entire time he has been a member of the New York Mets. The week the trade was made, Zambrano skipped a start because of arm stiffness. Shouldn’t some alarms have gone off? Duquette blamed Tampa doctors for downplaying the injury, but you don’t need to be able to read medical charts to know something might be amiss.
 
LOOK FOR VALUE
 
Barbaro, who was such a good bet on Derby Day, might not be such a great bet for the Preakness. You won’t get enough in return. A lefty who throws 97 MPH has more value than a barely over .500 pitcher with control problems. Had Mr. Duquette waited until the off-season, he might have received Tim Hudson or Mark Mulder in return.
 
KNOW WHEN TO WALK AWAY
 
This is the one Mr. Duquette clearly missed. Tampa officials were said to be laughing to themselves when they realized what they were getting. Mr. Duquette should clearly have just walked away.
 
Next time you’re in Baltimore and you’re looking for someone to round out your poker game, look up Mr. Jim Duquette because there ain’t no sucker like the one who doesn’t know the rules.

By Jonathan Wachs
WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer
 
A baseball trade is basically a wager by two general managers that the player each acquires will be better than the one he gives up.  It may or may not work out well. That’s gambling.
 
Now that Scott Kazmir is off to a great start at 5-2 with a 2.94 ERA and Victor Zambrano has just undergone season-ending surgery, it might be a good time to review how Jim Duquette, the Mets GM at the time, broke every single rule of gambling.
 
NEVER BET MORE THAN YOU CAN AFFORD
 
When the Mets traded Scott Kazmir, their farm system was almost completely bare. The only true blue-chip pitching prospects at the time were Phil Humber, who has since undergone Tommy John surgery, and Alay Soler, a Cuban defector who just made it to the U.S. this season and is currently pitching at AA.  This year the Mets are throwing out such retreads as Jose Lima and Jeremi Gonzalez as they wait for Mike Pelfrey and the next wave of prospects to be ready. Do you think they would rather have sent out Jose Lima – or Scott Kazmir, to try and sweep their arch-rival Braves last week?
 
NEVER BET WHILE INTOXICATED
 
Right around the time of the trade in 2004, the Mets had just swept their cross-town rivals, the New York Yankees, in an exciting three-game series.  The Mets, who had been dead in this town since 2000, finally had some juice. They were close to first place and back on the back page. Of course, they still had a .500 record and not much talent. But Duquette, drunk on the city’s enthusiasm, wanted to “win now” no matter what the future cost.
 
DO YOUR HOMEWORK
 
You wouldn’t bet on a Falcons game without checking if Michael Vick was hurt, would you? Yet Mr. Duquette failed to adequately check into Victor Zambrano’s injury before the trade. Zambrano admitted he has been hurt the entire time he has been a member of the New York Mets. The week the trade was made, Zambrano skipped a start because of arm stiffness. Shouldn’t some alarms have gone off? Duquette blamed Tampa doctors for downplaying the injury, but you don’t need to be able to read medical charts to know something might be amiss.
 
LOOK FOR VALUE
 
Barbaro, who was such a good bet on Derby Day, might not be such a great bet for the Preakness. You won’t get enough in return. A lefty who throws 97 MPH has more value than a barely over .500 pitcher with control problems. Had Mr. Duquette waited until the off-season, he might have received Tim Hudson or Mark Mulder in return.
 
KNOW WHEN TO WALK AWAY
 
This is the one Mr. Duquette clearly missed. Tampa officials were said to be laughing to themselves when they realized what they were getting. Mr. Duquette should clearly have just walked away.
 
Next time you’re in Baltimore and you’re looking for someone to round out your poker game, look up Mr. Jim Duquette because there ain’t no sucker like the one who doesn’t know the rules.

Thursday, May 18^th 2006 1:05 PM ET

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By Jonathan Wachs
WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer
 
Wagerweb.com has posted odds offering bettors the chance to predict which Major League Baseball team Roger Clemens will return to.  Clemens is clearly enjoying the attention he is garnering from his four suitors.  Let’s take a look at how Clemens has played this situation thus far, and how it will play out at the end.
 
THE EASY MARK:
Roger Clemens enjoyed opening day in Arlington Stadium, sitting next to owner Tom Hicks. When Clemens was introduced and shown on the scoreboard, the fans went crazy. Do the Rangers, who have gone all these years searching for pitching, really have a shot at Roger Clemens? Well, the Rangers are an improved team, with Kevin Millwood leading some young up-and-coming pitchers. And it would do wonders for Clemens’ legend to ride into Arlington on his horse and lead them to their first World Series Championship. Is it going to happen? No. Why would Clemens pitch in a hitter’s park for a team which, despite their improvements, is not a serious World Series contender? More likely, Roger was paying attention when Tom Hicks bid against himself to sign Alex Rodriguez to his franchise-crippling $250 million dollar contract. This is exactly the type of guy you want to draw into the bidding.  Wagerweb.com has the odds on Clemens going to the Rangers at 6-1. Trust me, it’s far longer than that.
 
AN OFFER HE CAN’T REFUSE:
Roger Clemens still keeps in touch with buddies Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada, and there were reports that Jeter had his ear during the World Baseball Classic. And if Clemens is looking for a sure bet to get to the playoffs, it’s been a while since the Yanks sat out October. Can Clemens return to the Yankees? Probably not.  Roger Clemens already got a Hummer as a retirement gift, and you have to figure, after feasting on weaker National League number eight hitters, and pitchers’ feeble attempts to catch up to his fastball, he might not be dying to face more formidable American League lineups.  If Randy Johnson keeps looking his age, can George Steinbrenner make Roger Clemens an offer he can’t refuse? Could happen, but George will never let Clemens skip road trips in fear that all of his stable of superstars will demand the same special treatment. At 1:2, this is not a good bet.
 
FINISH WHERE HE STARTED
Imagine the nostalgic feeling of coming back where you began your career, and leading that team to a World Series. What a perfect symmetry to a career.  Almost like a movie script. Only the impact of leading the Red Sox to a World Series is not nearly what it was two years ago.  The Red Sox already have had a hero who started in their organization come back and lead them to the Promised Land. And that hero wore a bloody Red Sock. How can Clemens possibly top that? Besides, if the Red Sox really get close, Mr. Steinbrenner may very well make him an offer he can’t refuse. At 1:1, I just can’t see this as a good bet.
 
FINISH WHAT HE STARTED
The first year, Clemens led the Astros to the playoffs. His second year, he helped them to their first World Series.  Why not finish what he started? The Astros are off to a great start. Besides, the Mets, Cardinals and, possibly the Phillies, who can you remotely predict can stop them from at least getting there? His best friend Andy Pettitte has mentioned the possibility of retirement after this year (Don’t bet on that, though). Houston offers him a chance to stay close to home and it lets him skip those pesky road trips.  They have already made him a generous contract offer. The odds are 2:1.
 
After all that analysis, it must come down to this: If you could work closer to home, travel less, and not have to work as hard, for similar money, what would you do? Come on, this may be Roger Clemens, but it is not rocket science. Bet the 2:1 on him returning to the Astros. It may be the best bet available on the entire website.

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Charlie Manuel gestured and gyrated. He cussed and fussed. His message got across.

The Philadelphia Phillies got their wake-up call from an unlikely source. The Phillies haven't lost since their normally low-key manager ripped into them in the early innings of a game at Florida last Monday.

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By Jonathan Wachs
WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer
 
The calendar has turned on the first month of the 2006 baseball season. While there is plenty of season left, it’s a good time to evaluate who has the early lead on baseball’s top awards.
 
American League MVP:
 
1)       Jim Thome – While he has slowed somewhat since his sizzling start, Jim Thome has been the best acquisition any American League team has made. Many questioned what he had left, but he put any doubts to rest immediately by homering in his first 2 games and 6 times in his first 10 games. His 10 homeruns and 24 RBIs are tops on the American League’s most talented team.
 
2)       Jason Giambi – His .542 OBP is fantastic as Giambi continues to expand on last year’s comeback-         player-of-the-year performance. While he leads the AL in walks with 27, Giambi is not just being passive, as he also leads the AL in RBIs with 27. Only his statuesque defense and stubbornness about embracing the DH role make him second choice.
 
3)       Vernon Wells – The Blue Jays went on baseball’s biggest shopping spree, this off-season, but one of their incumbent players has turned in his best effort so far. With 9 homers, 25 RBIs and a .374 batting average, Wells is carrying a heavy load as Toronto tries to prove that they can keep pace with the Red Sox and The Yankees.
 
National League MVP:
 
1)       Albert Pujols – Provided he stays healthy, it appears as though this award will be his to lose for many years to come. His record-breaking 14 homeruns in April and 32 RBIs have led the Cardinals to another great start.
 
2)       Lance Berkman – The reason for the Astros’ slow start, last April, was likely because they missed Berkman’s bat. Berkman has had a fast start, this year (10 homeruns, 31 RBIs and .240 BA), and so have the Astros.
 
3)       Carlos Delgado – The best acquisition any National League team made, this off-season, Delgado has really carried the load (10 homeruns and 21 RBIs) while Beltran was injured and Cliff Floyd slumped.
 
American League Cy Young:
 
1)       Jose Contreras – His 4-0 record and league-leading 1.45 ERA still leads a pitching staff that makes the White Sox the best bet to win the AL Pennant at the sports book.
 
2)       Curt Schilling – Baseball’s biggest loudmouth is once again able to “walk the walk.”  His 4-1 record, 2.88 ERA and durability (40.2 IP) have led the Red Sox to an early tenuous hold on first place in the AL East.
 
3)       Kenny Rogers – The ace on a staff of promising young guns, veteran Rogers has done everything you can ask for the Tigers (4-2, 2.59 ERA and a great 0.98 WHIP).
 
National League Cy Young:
 
1)        Greg Maddux – Talk about giving a club a lift. Once again frustrated by injuries to Mark Prior and Kerry Wood, the cursed Cubbies are thrilled by Maddux’s early renaissance (5-0, 1.35 ERA).
 
2)        Pedro Martinez – The daily updates by a panicked New York press corps on Pedro’s toe during spring training are long forgotten as Pedro has been fantastic (5-0, 0.89 WHIP). He already has beaten the hated Braves twice.
 
3)        Bronson Arroyo – Wow, after the AL East, this is sure easy. Arroyo (5-0, 2.06 ERA) has led the way for baseball’s biggest early season surprise.
 
Rookies of the Year:
 
American League:
 
Jonathan Papelbon – Thrown into the Boston pressure-cooker, Papelbon leads the AL in saves (10) and has yet to allow a run in over 15 innings.
 
National League:
 
Prince Fielder – Unlike his father, Cecil, Prince didn’t need to serve some time in the Japanese League to find his stroke. Fielder’s .343 average leads all rookies.
 
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Last week against the Nationals, the Mets that have one of the best records in the league went down 2-6 in a game that the Nationals needed to win desperately. Byrd and Marlon Anderson opened the game with consecutive doubles down the left-field line, putting the Nationals ahead. Lo Duca tied it with a solo shot in the bottom half.

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The Philadelphia Phillies used a four-run seventh to pull out a 7-to-5 triumph at Florida.Aaron Rowand put the Phillies ahead with a bases-loaded triple after Jimmy Rollins ignited the rally with a solo homer. It came a day after the Phils erased a 5-to-1 deficit in the seventh inning of an 8-to-5 win over the Marlins.

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By Bill Kugelberg
WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer

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Just like clockwork, every spring brings the same hopes to major league baseball teams all over the country. Some fans of teams like the Pittsburgh Pirates, Kansas City Royals and the Detroit Tigers are just hoping to stay in the pennant race after the first few weeks of the season, while other fans have higher aspirations.

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